In Progress:

Manuscript in progress: "Staying Regular?"

Monograph in progress: "Most Counterfactuals Are False"

Co-edited volumes:

2016 - The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

2009 - Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions, eds. Alan Hájek and Vincent F. Hendricks, New York / London: Automatic Press / VIP, ISBN-10: 87-92130-05-4; ISBN-13: 978-87-92130-05-1.

 

Articles

2022

“Non-Measurability, Imprecise Credences, and Imprecise Chances”, with Yoaav Isaacs and John Hawthorne, in Mind. https://doi.org/10.1093/mind/fzab099 (Published 25 February 2022.)

2021

• “Degrees of Commensurability and the Repugnant Conclusion”, with Wlodek Rabinowicz, in Noûs. http://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12388
• Risky Business”, Philosophical Perspectives 35, Issue 1 (December 2021), 189-205, DOI: 10.1111/phpe.12147.
• “Counterfactual Scepticism and Antecedent-Contextualism”, Synthese 199, Issue 1–2 (December 2021), 637-659, https://doi-org.virtual.anu.edu.au/10.1007/s11229-020-02686-0
• “Contra Counterfactism”, Synthese 199, Issue 1–2 (December 2021), 181- 210, https://doi-org.virtual.anu.edu.au/10.1007/s11229-020-02643-x
• “Infinity”, with Kenny Easwaran, Paolo Mancosu, and Graham Oppy, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2021 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL = ">https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2021/entries/infinity/>
• “Hysteresis Hypotheses”, in Conditionals, Probability, and Paradox: Themes from the Philosophy of Dorothy Edgington, eds. Lee Walters and John Hawthorne, Oxford University Press, 227-238. ISBN: 9780198712732.
• “Interpretations of Probability”, with Christopher Hitchcock, in Oxford Bibliographies in Philosophy, ed. Duncan Pritchard. New York: Oxford University Press. https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780195396577/obo...
• “Subjective Probability and Its Dynamics”, with Julia Staffel, in Handbook of Rationality, MIT Press, eds. Markus Knauff and Wolfgang Spohn. ISBN: 9780262045070
• “Report on ‘Semi-Informative Priors over AI Timelines’”, with Jeremy Strasser, Open Philanthropy, https://docs.google.com/document/d/1S6hOHYsIAgx-VGYajSKYkm4SwR2BtBXY/edit#
• Foreword to Time, Identity, and the Self: Essays on Metaphysics, by Brian Garrett, ed. Jeremiah Joven Joaquin, Springer International Library.
   

2020

•  “Minkish Dispositions”, in a Special Issue on the Legacy of D.K. Lewis, Synthese 197 (11), November 2020, 4795-4811, eds. Marianna Antonutti Marfori and Pierluigi Graziani. doi:10.1007/s11229-015-1011-y.
   

2019

• “Interpretations of Probability”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2019 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming URL = ">https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2019/entries/probability-interpr.... (Substantive revision of 2011 article.)

 

2018

• “Interpretations of Probability”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2019 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming URL = ">https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2019/entries/probability-interpr.... (Substantive revision of 2011 article.)
• “The (In)validity of Pascal’s Wager”, in Classic Philosophical Arguments Series: Pascal’s Wager, eds. Paul Bartha and Lawrence Pasternak, Cambridge University Press, 2018, 123-147.

 

2017

• “A Tale of Two Epistemologies?”, with Hanti Lin, Res Philosophica 94, No. 2 (April), 207–232.
• “In Praise of Philosophy”, Learning from the Other – Australian and Chinese Perspectives on Philosophy, ed. John Makeham, Australian Academy of the Humanities, Canberra, 9–15.
• “The Philosopher’s Toolkit”, AEON, https://aeon.co/essays/with-the-use-of-heuristics-anybody-can-think-like....
• “Pascal's Wager”, invited contribution to The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager/(Substantive revision of 2012 article.)

 

2016

• “Making Ado Without Expectations” (with Mark Colyvan), Mind 125 (499), 829–857.
• “Minkish Dispositions”, Synthese, doi:10.1007/s11229-015-1011-y.
• “Probability for Everyone – Even Philosophers” (with Christopher Hitchcock), forthcoming in the Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• “Introduction” (with Christopher Hitchcock), forthcoming in the Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, eds. Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• “Philosophical Heuristics and Philosophical Methodology”, forthcoming in The Oxford Handbook of Philosophical Methodology, eds. Herman Cappelin, Tamar Szabó Gendler, and John Hawthorne, Oxford University Press.

2015

• “Counterfactual Reasoning, Quantitative: Philosophical Aspects”, major revision, lengthening, and update of my 2002 article in: James D. Wright (editor-in-chief), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, Vol. 5. Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 95-98.
• “Pascal’s Ultimate Gamble”, in The Norton Introduction to Philosophy, eds. Gideon Rosen, Alex Byrne, Joshua Cohen, Seana Shiffrin, W. W. Norton.
• “On the Plurality of Lewis’s Triviality Results”, in A Companion to David Lewis, eds. Barry Loewer and Jonathan Schaffer, Blackwell.

2014

• “Unexpected Expectations”, Mind 123 (490, April), 533-567.

• “Probabilities of Counterfactuals and Counterfactual Probabilities”,  Journal of Applied Logic 12 (3), 235-252. (Special volume on conditionals.)

• “Declarations of Independence” (with Branden Fitelson), Synthese, 10.1007/s11229-014-0559-2.

• “Heuristics for Philosophical Creativity”, in The Philosophy of Creativity, ed. Elliot Samuel Paul and Scott Barry Kaufman, Oxford University Press

• “A Chancy ‘Magic Trick’”, in Chance and Temporal Asymmetry, ed. Alastair Wilson, Oxford University Press, 100-111

2013                               

• “Confirmation” (with James M. Joyce), update of 2008 article for the 2nd edition of the Routledge Companion to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Stathis Psillos and Martin Curd, Routledge.

• “Saint Peter, Saint Petersburg, and Satan” (with Paul Bartha and John Barker), Synthese, December, DOI 10.1007/s11229-013-0379-9.

• “Bayesianism (Recent Uses of)” (with John Cusbert), the Encyclopedia of Philosophy and the Social Sciences, Sage.

2012

• "Is Strict Coherence Strictly Coherent?", Dialectica 66 (3), 411-424, special issue on Bayesian and traditional epistemology.
• "The Fall of Adams' Thesis", Journal of Language, Logic and Information 21 (2), 145-161, special issue on “Interpreting Probability”, eds. Timothy Childers and Ondrej Majer.
• "Blaise and Bayes", Probability in the Philosophy of Religion, ed. Jake Chandler and Victoria Harrison, Oxford University Press.
• "Pascal's Wager", invited contribution to The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Edward N. Zalta, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager/ (Substantive revision of 2007 article.)

2011

• "Rationality and indeterminate probabilities" (with Michael Smithson), Synthese 187, No. 1, 33-48, 2011 (In a special issue on probability.)
• "Triviality Pursuit", in Topoi 30, 3-15; special issue on probabilities and conditionals, eds. Simone Duca and Hannes Leitgeb, 2011. 
• "Conditional Probability", in Philosophy of Statistics, eds. Prasanta Bandhopadhyay and Malcolm Forster, Elsevier, 2011.

2010

• "Bayesian Epistemology", (with Stephan Hartmann), in A Companion to Epistemology, 2nd ed, (eds.) Jonathan Dancy, Ernest Sosa, and Matthias Steup, Blackwell, 2010.
• "Australasian Philosophy of Probability, and Probability in Australasian Philosophy", in Companion to Philosophy in Australasia, eds. Graham Oppy, Nick Trakakis, Lynda Burns, Steve Gardner and Fiona Leigh.

2009

• "Fifteen Arguments Against Hypothetical Frequentism", Erkenntnis (March 2009) 211-235, Reprinted in The Routledge Anthology of Probability, ed. Antony Eagle. Routledge 2009.
• "Two Interpretations of Two Stoic Conditionals", in Logical Analysis and History of Philosophy, 2009.
• Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions, edited by Alan Hájek and Vincent F. Hendricks, New York / London: Automatic Press / VIP, ISBN-10: 87-92130-05-4; ISBN-13: 978-87-92130-05-1.

2008

• "Complex Expectations" (with Harris Nover), Mind 117 (July), 643-664.
• "David Lewis", The New Dictionary of Scientific Biography, ed. Noretta Koertke, Scribner's.
• "Dutch Book Arguments", in The Oxford Handbook of Rational and Social Choice, ed. Paul Anand, Prasanta Pattanaik, and Clemens Puppe. Oxford University Press. 2008.
• "A Philosopher's Guide to Probability", in Uncertainty: Multi-disciplinary Perspectives on Risk, Earthscan (the Goolabri symposium organized by Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson), 2008.
• "Are Miracles Chimerical?", in Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Religion, ed. Jon Kvanvig. [scanned version]
• "Probability - A Philosophical Overview", in Current Issues in the Philosophy of Mathematics From the Perspective of Mathematicians, ed. Bonnie Gold, Mathematical Association of America.
• "Arguments For - Or Against - Probabilism?" 
  The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (December), 793-819. 
  Also in Degrees of Belief, eds. Franz Huber and Christoph Schmidt-Petri, Springer, 2009. 229-251. [ this version ]
• "Confirmation" (with James M. Joyce), in the Routledge Companion to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Stathis Psillos and Martin Curd, 2008.
• Interview, Epistemology: 5 Questions, eds. Vincent F. Hendricks and Duncan Pritchard, Automatic Press, 2008.
• "Pascal's Wager", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2008 edition), ed. E. Zalta. (Substantive revision of original 1998 article.)

2007

• Ramsey + Moore = God (with David Chalmers), Analysis 67 (294): 170-172.
• "The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too", Synthese 156: 185-215. 2007.
• "What Are Degrees of Belief?" (with Lina Eriksson), Studia Logica 86: 185-215 (special issue on formal epistemology), ed. Branden Fitelson, 2007.
• "My Philosophical Position Says "p", and I Don't Believe "p", in Moorean Absurdity: Essays on Content, Context and Their Collision, eds. Mitchell Green and John Williams, Oxford University Press, 2007.
• "Interpretations of Probability", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2003 edition), ed. E. Zalta.

2006

• Interview on Formal Philosophy, Masses of Formal Philosophy, eds. Vincent F. Hendricks and John Symons, Automatic Press.
• "Perplexing Expectations" (with Harris Nover), Mind 115, July 2006.
• "Chance" (with Carl Hoefer), in the Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2nd edition, ed. Donald Borchert, Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA, 2006.
• "Some Reminiscences on Richard Jeffrey, and Some Reflections on The Logic of Decision", Philosophy of Science, PSA 2006 edition.

2005

• "The Cable Guy Paradox", Analysis, Vol. 65, No. 4, April 2005.
• "Probability" (with Branden Fitelson and Ned Hall), The Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy of Science, eds. Jessica Pfeiffer, Sherri Rausch, and Sahotra Sarkar, Routledge.
• "Scotching Dutch Books?", Philosophical Perspectives 19 (issue on Epistemology), ed. John Hawthorne.

2004

• "Vexing Expectations" (with Harris Nover), Mind, Vol. 113, April 2004, 237-249.
• "Desire Beyond Belief" (with Philip Pettit), Australasian Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 82, March 2004, 77-92.
• Reprinted in Lewisian Themes: the Philosophy of David K. Lewis, eds. Frank Jackson and Graham Priest, Oxford University Press, 2004, 78-93.
• "Probability", the New Dictionary of the History of Ideas, Charles  Scribner's Sons, 2004.

2003

• "Waging War On Pascal’s Wager", Philosophical Review, Vol. 113, January 2003, 27–56. Reprinted in The Philosopher’s Annual 2004, ed. Patrick Grim,www.philosophersannual.org.
• "What Conditional Probability Could Not Be", Synthese, Vol. 137, No. 3, December 2003, 273-323.
• "Conditional Probability is the Very Guide of Life", in Probability is the Very Guide of Life: The Philosophical Uses of Chance, eds. Henry Kyburg, Jr. and Mariam Thalos, Open Court. Abridged version in Proceedings of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis 2002.

2002

• "Counterfactual Reasoning—Quantitative (Philosophical Aspects)",International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier, 2872-2874.
• "Induction and Probability" (with Ned Hall), in The Blackwell Guide to the Philosophy of Science, eds. Peter Machamer and Michael Silberstein, Blackwell, 149-172.

2001

• "Probability, Logic, and Probability Logic", in The Blackwell Companion to Logic, ed. Lou Goble, Blackwell, 362-384.
• "Crimmins, Gonzales, and Moore" (with Daniel Stoljar), Analysis, Vol. 61, No. 3, 208-213.

2000

• “Objecting Vaguely to Pascal's Wager”, Philosophical Studies, Vol. 98 (1), March, 1-16.

1998

• “Agnosticism Meets Bayesianism”, Analysis, Vol. 58 No. 3, 199-206.

1997

• “David Hume, David Lewis, and Decision Theory” (with Alex Byrne), Mind, Vol. 106, 411-428.

• “The Illogic of Pascal's Wager”, Proceedings of the 10th Logica International Symposium, Liblice, ed. T. Childers et al, 239-249, Filosophia, The Institute of Philosophy of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.

• “Full Belief and Probability: Comments on van Fraassen”, with William L. Harper, Dialogue (the Canadian Philosophical Review), Vol. 36, No. 1, (Winter), 91-100.

1996

• “The Fearless and Moderate Revision: Extending Lewis' Triviality Results”, Proceedings of the 9th Logica International Symposium, Liblice, ed. T. Childers et al, 171-178, Filosophia, The Institute of Philosophy of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.

• “ ‘Mises Redux’—Redux: Fifteen Arguments Against Finite Frequentism”, Erkenntnis, Vol. 45, 209-227.

• Reprinted in Probability, Dynamics and Causality – Essays in Honor of Richard C. Jeffrey, D. Costantini and M. Galavotti (eds.), Kluwer.

• Reprinted in Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings, ed. Antony Eagle, Routledge 2011.

1995

• “In Defense of Hume's Balancing of Probabilities in the Miracles Argument”, Southwest Philosophy Review, Vol. 11, Number 1, (January), 111-118.

1994

• “Triviality on the Cheap?”, in Probability and Conditionals, ed. Ellery Eells and Brian Skyrms, Cambridge University Press, 113-140.

• “The Hypothesis of the Conditional Construal of Conditional Probability”, (with Ned Hall) in Probability and Conditionals, ed. Ellery Eells and Brian Skyrms, Cambridge University Press, 75-111.

1992

• “EPR” (with Jeffrey Bub), Foundations of Physics, Vol. 21, Festschrift for Sir Karl Popper, 313-332

• “Nuke 'Em Problems”, Analysis Vol. 51, No. 4, 254-264

• Translated into Polish as "Zwierciadlo Meduzy", in Filozofia Moralnosci (Philosophy of Morality), Aletheia Foundation Publishing House, Poland 1997.

1989

• “Probabilities of Conditionals—Revisited”, Journal of Philosophical Logic Vol. 18, No. 4, 423-428.

PhD dissertation

 

Book Reviews

2000

• Critical Notice on Bayes or Bust?, by John Earman, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 59, 707-711 (with Brian Skyrms).

1997

• Review of Gambling on God, ed. Jeff Jordan, Australasian Journal of Philosophy,  Vol. 75, No. 1, March, 119-122.

1994

• Review of The Fixation of Belief and Its Undoing, by Isaac Levi, Philosophical Review 103 (January), 166-168.

1992

• Review of Slippery Slope Arguments by Douglas Walton,Times Literary Supplement, September 4, 23.